Our model got only one of the semi-finals two games. This weekend it’s the final, and all signs point towards a Hurricanes win! Its our last prediction! Next week we’ll follow up with a last post (mortem) looking back at the Super Rugby tournament, where our model did well, and where it fell short.
Lets see how what happens!
Just to prove we don’t only alter any of our predictions based on the outcome, here is an “after-the-fact” post about last weekend’s playoffs:
Our model got one of the two games last weekend correct. This weekend its again predicting wins for the two home sides, who also have the advantage of not playing last week (although that didn’t go into the model predictions).
Picture sourced from: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/12/20/article-2076823-0F33D39600000578-104_468x327.jpg
This week, we present a summary of some topical papers from the months of April-June in the area of injury prevention in rugby. See the link and full references to the articles at the end of the summary. Please note that the summaries are simply our interpretation of the most salient points and are not supposed to replace you reading the article for yourself.
Collapsed scrums and collision tackles: what is the injury risk? (Roberts et al. 2014):
“Taking into account the number of all events (rucks, scrums, tackles) the tackle has greatest propensity for injury and collision (illegal) tackles are the most risky. Only 5% of scrums collapse, but these have 4 times the injury risk of non-collapsed scrums. Injury prevention should focus on tackle technique and enforcing laws that reduce collapsed scrums.”
Does a standardised exercise protocol incorporating a cognitive task provoke postconcussion-like symptoms in healthy individuals? (Lee et al. 2015):
SCAT2 measured 1 and 15 minutes after exercise cessation for 3 conditions: 1. Exercise vs 2. Exercise + addition (arithmetic) task vs 3. Exercise + Tetris (interactive video game). There was a significant increase in SCAT-measured symptoms score over time for all three conditions. Adding in cognitive-burdens such as arithmetic or video game (Tetris) to the exercise had no additional effect on SCAT-measured symptoms).
When just doing it is not enough – assessing the fidelity of player performance of an injury prevention exercise program. (Fortington et al. 2015)
Only 67% of players were performing the FootyFirst exercises as they were prescribed. This is a problem as correct technique is necessary to elicit the benefits. Footyfirst is a coach-led, exercise-based, lower-limb injury prevention program.
Effectiveness of a tailored neck training program on neck strength, movement, and fatigue in under-19 male rugby players: a randomized controlled pilot study. (Barrett et al. 2015):
Forwards and backs randomised into a neck training (personalised 6-week neck exercise regime based on baseline measurements) or a control group (normal training). No clinically significant findings, although there were trends to improve neck strength, range of movement and susceptibility of neck muscles to fatigue.
Chronic traumatic encephalopathy: a potential late and under recognized consequence of rugby union? (Stewart et al. 2015):
CTE may be under-recognised in rugby. A case is presented to illustrate that a detailed and imaging are critical in assessing patients with neurocognitive disease to prevent misdiagnosis.
Defining a safe player run-off zone around rugby union playing areas. (Fuller et al. 2015) :
Based on video analysis of injurious events occurring outside field of play a minimum distance of 5m around a standard rugby pitch is proposed.
Feel free to let us know your thoughts on these papers!
References:
Barrett M, McLoughlin T, Gallagher K, Gatherer D, Parratt M, Perera J, et al. Effectiveness of a tailored neck training program on neck strength, movement, and fatigue in under-19 male rugby players: a randomized controlled pilot study. OAJSM. 2015 May;:137.
Fortington LV, Donaldson A, Lathlean T, Young WB, Gabbe BJ, Lloyd D, et al. When “just doing it” is not enough: assessing the fidelity of player performance of an injury prevention exercise program. J Sci Med Sport. 2015 May;18(3):272–7.
Fuller CW, Jones R, Fuller AD. Defining a safe player run-off zone around rugby union playing areas. Inj Prev. 2015 May 25.
Lee H, Sullivan SJ, Schneiders AG. Does a standardised exercise protocol incorporating a cognitive task provoke postconcussion-like symptoms in healthy individuals? J Sci Med Sport. 2015 May;18(3):245–9.
Roberts SP, Trewartha G, England M, Stokes KA. Collapsed scrums and collision tackles: what is the injury risk? Br J Sports Med. 2014 Feb 10.
Stewart W, McNamara PH, Lawlor B, Hutchinson S, Farrell M. Chronic traumatic encephalopathy: a potential late and under recognized consequence of rugby union? QJM. 2015 May 21.
Rugby Science 