April 10, 2015

Which team has the most optimistic fans in the competition? Superbru predictions Week 9

We were solidly outplayed by the average pundit last weekend: following the lead of Superbru neutrals would have got five out of six games right; we got just three.

To distract you from our poor performance we thought we’d look at an interesting question: which team has the most optimistic fans in the competition? The chart below shows the average overestimate made by each team’s fan base on Superbru. From the 8 rounds played so far, Reds fans have been the most optimistic, in the sense of making the biggest overestimates of how their team is going to fare, followed by three South African franchises. Interestingly fans of most New Zealand teams actually underestimate their team’s performances!

Here are the predictions for the weekend ahead:

Ian Durbach

April 2, 2015

SuperBru predictions Week 8

Last weekend’s games went more-or-less according to form: our model got 5 out of 7 correct, but so did the average Superbru user. We ended up moving up the leaderboard slightly though, thanks to no less than 3 exact score predictions! To date our model has outperformed 70% of Superbru users. Here are the details:

This weekend looks like its back to difficult predictions: only the Bulls and Chiefs are unanimously chosen by the three components of our model. Its interesting to note where people expectations are following form (Hurricanes over Stormers, Sharks over Crusaders), where they follow past history (Brumbies over Cheetahs), and where they run contrary to both (Rebels over Reds)!

Ian Durbach

March 27, 2015

#Superugby predictions: our first exact score prediction and week 7

Our model had a pretty good weekend out, getting four of six games right. That includes our first exact score prediction – the Sharks beating the Chiefs by a single point, although nothing else about that game could have been expected! Here’s how last weekend’s games went:

This weekend looks like one of the more predictable rounds, on paper at least. Big wins are expected for the Hurricanes and Chiefs, and all three of our measures point towards the Waratahs and Crusaders winning their games. The Reds lost heavily to the Brumbies in their last outing, so our model tips the Lions to extend their winning streak on tour. Here are the predictions:

What are your thoughts on our predictions?