SuperRugby Round 3 based on prediction model

Last weekend’s predictions fared a lot better than Round 1. From 1/7 we’ve gone to 4/7. That means by extrapolation this weekend we should get 100%…

Here’s how last weekend’s games happened:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 5.05.19 PM This week the Superbru fan analysis turns up a few interesting results. As expected, there’s a healthy dose of fan bias, but it’s not unanimous: Rebels and Lions fans are actually expecting their teams to lose this weekend.

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 5.05.40 PM

Here are the Rugby Scientists’ prediction, triangulated from predictions made from past seasons points tallies, previous game analyses, and adjusted Superbru forecasts. The forecasts make it look like we’re in for a weekend of close games, although for three of the games the margin, form, and Superbru predictions coincide: Hurricanes to beat the Force, Sharks to beat the Bulls, and Stormers to beat the Lions, all away.

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 5.06.13 PM

Dr Ian Durbach

(Data supplied by Superbru)

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