Rugby Science Update 10
Predicting performance at the group-phase and knockout-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup
The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for performance during the group-phase of the 2015 Rugby World Cup (RWC) and to determine the most significant and relevant performance indicators for predicting match outcome. Performance indicators were downloaded from the OPTA website from the 2015 RWC (40 group-phase and 8 knockout-phase matches) to be analysed. A random forest classification model was developed to establish the relationship between the performance indicators and the match outcomes. The model created using the group-phase matches achieved a 100% accuracy of predicting match outcomes. When applied to the knockout-phase matches, this model had an overall accuracy of 87.5%, with sensitivity and specificity of 87.5%. The model identified 13 performance indicators that significantly predicted match outcomes. These included tackle-ratio, clean breaks, average carry, lineouts won, penalties conceded, missed tackles, lineouts won in the opposition 22, defenders beaten, metres carried, kicks from hand, lineout success, penalties in opposition 22 m and scrums won. The performance indicators in the group-phase matches that could predict the match outcomes were tackle ratio, clean breaks and average carry. Interestingly, the performance indicators do not change from the group to knockout stages. The findings of this study provide insights for rugby teams to assess their performance and understand the major technical factors contributing to success and failure in individual matches. Coaches and sport practitioners can then adjust their technical and tactical training appropriately.
This study is published in European Journal of Sport Science.
Statistical Review and Match Analysis of Rugby World Cups Finals
The purpose of this study was to describe game statistics and match analysis of Rugby World Cups from 1987 to 2015. The analysis focused on all final matches (n = 8) from 1987 to 2015 Rugby World Cups, and official reports from the Rugby World Cup webpages were also included in the analysis. This analysis included tracking counts of all match activities. 39 key performance indicators were categorised into seven groups: mode of scoring, set-pieces, defensive, offensive, infringements, replacements, and team/time possession efficiency. It was observed that the winning teams of the final matches in the Rugby World Cup attempted more penalty kicks. Interesting, the number of drop goals were similar between the winning and losing teams. The winning teams won more set pieces, including winning scrums and lineouts. In the defensive category, the winning teams attempted and completed more tackles than the losing teams. Regarding, the offensive category, the winning teams passed less, completed fewer offloads, and were involved in more rucks and mauls. Interestingly, it was noted that the losing teams made more substitutions than the winning teams. Furthermore, both teams in the Rugby World Cup finals shared similar possession of the ball. The authors of the study mentioned the importance of player emotions, as well as conducting more in-depth match analysis to enhance team performance characteristics.
This study is published in Journal of Human Kinetics.
How to harness and improve on video analysis for youth rugby player safety: a narrative review
The purpose of this narrative review is to synthesize the strengths and limitations of video analysis in youth rugby used for injury surveillance, highlight the importance of video analysis for youth player safety and discuss recommendations. This review highlights multiple strengths and limitations of video analysis in youth rugby for injury surveillance. It is recommended in this review that video assessment of injury and concussion outcomes be prioritised to educate, inform and improve youth rugby safety. The importance of analysing these outcomes is highlighted within this review which develops and guides targeted injury and concussion prevention strategies. Furthermore, a video analysis framework consensus that is specific to youth rugby is needed.
This study is published in BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine.
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