#Superugby predictive model: searching for 100% in round 4!

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Our predictions look like they’re picking up steam: this past weekend we got everything right but the Bulls. No crystal ball claims just yet though, since last weekend’s games were generally won by the favourite. Here’s how the games happened:

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Here are our predictions for the upcoming weekend. The games outside South Africa seem a bit more clear-cut, with wins predicted across the board for the Chiefs, Brumbies, Blues, and Waratahs. There’s more uncertainty about the South African derbies. Superbru neutrals are picking the Cheetahs, but our model says the Bulls past history and win over the Sharks last week is enough to make them favourites to win. Looks like it’ll be close though!

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SuperRugby Round 3 based on prediction model

Last weekend’s predictions fared a lot better than Round 1. From 1/7 we’ve gone to 4/7. That means by extrapolation this weekend we should get 100%…

Here’s how last weekend’s games happened:

Screen Shot 2015-02-26 at 5.05.19 PM This week the Superbru fan analysis turns up a few interesting results. As expected, there’s a healthy dose of fan bias, but it’s not unanimous: Rebels and Lions fans are actually expecting their teams to lose this weekend.

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Here are the Rugby Scientists’ prediction, triangulated from predictions made from past seasons points tallies, previous game analyses, and adjusted Superbru forecasts. The forecasts make it look like we’re in for a weekend of close games, although for three of the games the margin, form, and Superbru predictions coincide: Hurricanes to beat the Force, Sharks to beat the Bulls, and Stormers to beat the Lions, all away.

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Dr Ian Durbach

(Data supplied by Superbru)