Home ground advantage in #Superugby?

Round 12 saw two unexpected results, with very few picking the Rebels to beat the Chiefs or the Cheetahs to beat the Stormers. Since both the Rebels and Cheetahs were unexpected home-side victories, we looked a bit closer at whether teams playing at home are doing relatively better later on in the competition. The plot below shows, round by round, the proportion of home sides winning. The blue line gives the best fit to the data – it looks like home sides do a little better as the competition progresses. It’s a small effect at best, but worth keeping an eye on. Perhaps playing at home partially offsets the fatigue that sets in later in the competition?

Screen Shot 2015-05-08 at 8.50.05 AM

Here are the outcomes for last weekend followed by predictions for the weekend ahead.

Screen Shot 2015-05-08 at 8.50.17 AM

Screen Shot 2015-05-08 at 8.50.25 AM

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